Submission Predictions: UFC 136
Okay, it's gonna take a while for Jimmy Johns to get here. Freaky fast my ass.
So, while I wait, let's go over some submission scenarios for UFC 136:
I'm not going over all the fights so done start f***ing complaining later when you realize I didn't cover everyone. I'm going to do two fights from the under just because I like the fighters or think there might actually be a f***ing sub. Or at least an attempt.
Aarson Simpson (9-2) versus Eric "Red" Schafer (14-5-2)
Simpson is a world-class wrestler and neither of his losses are via submission. He actually has one in his win column, but it was back in 2000.
Schafer is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with 9 of his wins via submission, but hasn't had a lot of luck in the UFC where he has suffered 4 out of his 5 losses.
That being said, Simpson will likely try to take this to the ground and Schafer will likely let him. If there is a sub or sub attempt, it is going to be from Schafer. And I would guess it would be a guillotine.
Chance of Submission: 25%
Demian Maia (13-3) versus Jorge Santiago (23-9)
Of course I'm going to talk about Maia. What kind of f***ing BJJ site would this be without me talking about Maia? 8 of his wins are via submission, however, as of late, it seems to be up to the judges if he wins or loses.
Santiago is a tough cat that likes to work his game from the ground. Most of his losses have come from (T)KO and none from being submitted. Gotta favor Maia on the ground, but if it goes there it could be a huge back and forth.
Chance of Submission: 75% (99% chance of at least an attempt, God help me if these guys only want to strike)
Crap, this is already taking way too f***ing long to type, I gotta speed this up before my hangover kicks in. Forget me listing records, you'll be lucky if I am doing first names by the end.
Melvin Guillard vs Joe Lauzon
Guillard is crazy strong with good wrestling, but is suspect to submissions. Lauzon can't compete with the strength but might be more well rounded. I give the submission edge to Lauzon.
Chance of Submission: 50%
Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan
Garcia is a freak that could take a cinder block to the skull, but can't see a telegraphed Twister. Phan is... I dunno, I guess well rounded. I just don't care about this fight.
Chance of Submission: 15%
Brian Stann vs Chael Sonnen
Stann knocks people out and Sonnen has made his feelings on submissions well known. Stann can get controlled on the ground by dominant wrestlers and Sonnen doesn't go for subs.
Chance of Submission: 1% (via omoplata by Sonnen if there is a God)
Kenny Florian vs Jose Aldo (featherweight title fight)
Florian is a black belt with an eating disorder that can either choke you out or get a TKO because he cuts you with an elbow. And he seems to be blackmailing Dana White into always getting title shots.
Aldo just likes to knock people out. Aldo's sole loss in 19 fights is from a rear naked choke back in 2005. He's had 12 fights since then and finished 7 via (T)KO. Of course, Aldo could have had an issue cutting weight and just look s***y.
Chance of Submission: 30% (which is being generous as it assumes that Aldo doesn't knock KenFlo out in the first round)
Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard (light weight title fight)
Mayhard has an unofficial loss via guillotine to Nate Diaz on The Ultimate Fighter, besides that he will probably look for the KO or slam his way to a decision. Edgar has at least gotten a sub. If anything in the way of a sub happens I am guessing rear naked choke when someone gets lit up.
Two wrestlers going at it for 5 rounds? What do you think?
Chance of Submission: 5%
What? You expected more out of this crowd? Or me?